Democratic presidential hopeful Kamala Harris has significantly reduced Donald Trump's advantage among two crucial voter groups—suburban residents and middle-income households—according to recent analysis from Reuters/Ipsos polling.
Since President Joe Biden withdrew from the 2024 race on July 21, Harris has gained ground in these demographic groups, revitalizing the Democratic campaign ahead of the November 5 election. While the race remains tight, Harris' growing support among suburban and middle-income voters could prove pivotal.
Suburban voters, who account for about half of the U.S. electorate and reflect the country’s racial diversity, are essential to winning the election. In 2020, Biden won suburban areas by six percentage points over Trump. However, polls from June and July indicated Trump was ahead of Biden, with 43% of suburbanites supporting him compared to Biden's 40%. Biden’s campaign struggled to excite this key voter base.
Harris began closing that gap following the launch of her campaign in July. By September and October, she was leading Trump 47% to 41% among suburban voters, marking a notable nine-point shift in her favor. These findings are based on six Reuters/Ipsos polls with responses from over 6,000 registered voters.
Trump also saw his support diminish among middle-income voters—those earning between $50,000 and $100,000 annually. In early summer, Trump led Biden 44% to 37% among these households. However, by October, Harris had overtaken him, leading Trump 45% to 43%. Again, this represents a nine-point swing in Harris' direction. The polling data has a margin of error of about 3 percentage points.
Trump performed well with middle-income voters in 2020, winning 52% to 47%, according to exit polls by the Pew Research Center.
Economic concerns continue to dominate the minds of voters, and according to October polling, 46% of respondents believe Trump is the better candidate to handle the economy, compared to 38% for Harris. Trump also holds an edge on issues like immigration and crime, with his promise to keep suburbs safe from illegal immigration resonating with some voters.
Despite Trump's attacks on the Biden administration for inflation and economic challenges, Harris has countered with a strong focus on expanding the middle class. Her speeches often emphasize affordability and protecting democracy, themes that have bolstered her standing with both suburban and middle-income voters.
David Wasserman, a political analyst with the Cook Political Report, said Harris’ focus on economic issues has been effective in reducing Trump's lead on topics like inflation. Harris appears to be making gains with affluent suburban voters who are more optimistic about the economic outlook. Middle-income voters, he suggested, may be responding positively to Harris' promises to support middle-class households.
However, voter turnout in both Democratic-leaning urban centers and Republican-leaning rural areas could still play a significant role in determining the election’s outcome.
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